In my interview with Kotkin, he warned me that the future is not something that is completely knowable or predictable. The nation’s future will hold many leisures, he told me, but it will also hold some difficulties to overcome.
"We will be seeing a world where there are enormous opportunities," Kotkin said, "but it is also very insecure and unstable. You’re obviously not going into a world where you’re going to get a job at IBM and work for them for thirty years. That’s just not likely to happen."
So, does this mean I should just drop out now, and save my dad a little money?
No, answered Kotkin. Education will be even more valuable in the years to come.
Don’t Expect Stability
"For people with educations, there will be a lot of opportunity, but it will be subject to little fluctuations," Kotkin said.
And Kotkin knows. Major publications solicit his ideas as a contributing editor to The LA Times and a frequent contributor to The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post and Inc. Magazine.
"You will always have to think about building your skills, your resume and your career, instead of landing a job and that’s what you’re going to do for five or ten years. For instance, the average period to hold a job in California is three years. It’s very difficult to predict what you are going to be doing six months, a year, two years from now."
In order to adjust to the reality of this job market, Kotkin advised us to regard ourselves as a little company with contracts. "Even if you have an employer, an employer is really your client. When you no longer serve the needs of that client, you can figure that you are not going to be there," he said. "Hopefully, you can build a client relationship or find another client which offers a better relationship."
Another problem that we might face is the class disparity issue, which continues to worsen because of the job market. Kotkin asserted that this is because only two kinds of jobs are being created — high paying jobs and low paying jobs — both in great numbers. The market is creating very few jobs for the middle class. "There is no question that [the gap] is growing," he said. "You’ve got tremendous opportunities for people with skills and some opportunities at the bottom level but not a lot in the middle. [This] general deterioration of the middle class has all sorts of political and social implications in terms of the nature of democracy, since democracy essentially depends on there being a middle class." We may not be able to enjoy long-run success in the future job market, he said, but we can hope for some job security in the short run.