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Part 5 in the Graphic's 2008 presidential election series. For more coverage on Vote 2008 search keyword "Vote 2008."
The 2008 presidential campaign is well underway and, for two years now, the race has been breaking all the rules. While it is far from over, demographic and cultural shifts are resulting in new trends that should assure Barack Obama a victory in November. There is no doubt that this is a vigorous contest, but there are some trends that should cause Obama to rest easier at night:
• It’s all about the suburbs. Suburbs have generally been considered Republican terrain until 2000, when pollsters began noticing a demographic change in suburban voters. Since that time, voters in suburbs have increasingly been voting Democratic, resulting in victories for the party in states such as Virginia, where previously the voting base was solidly Republican. The “battle line” of 2008 for those areas is transitioning between older suburbs and newer ones, such as those in Northern Virginia. These suburbs, and those like them in the Midwest, will comprise some of the most highly contested districts in the upcoming election.
• Latino voters are the new opportunity. The Brookings Institute found that Hispanics accounted for half the population growth between 2000 and 2004, but only 18 percent of Hispanics turned out to vote in the presidential elections of those years. However, the Democrats gave new priority to the primary contest in Nevada, held their national Convention in Denver and placed several Western states with a high percentage of Hispanic voters on their swing-state target list for 2008.
• Looking to California as a guideline, Hispanic voters made up 30 percent of the Democratic primary electorate in 2008. The Obama campaign is hoping for similar turnout in key states, such as Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico, in November, giving Democrats victories in states that were previously “red.”
• The influence of married voters is declining. Lumped together, unmarried households (divorced and widowed) are now the majority of Americans. In other words, there are more singles than marrieds now in America. According to Tom Smith of the National Opinion Research Center, two-parent families with kids at home only accounted for 23 percent of the population in 2006, down from 45 percent in 1972. The proportion of never-married adults rose to nearly a quarter of the electorate between 1972 and 2006, up from 15 percent. Singles of all types trend Democratic — a trend which, in theory, should benefit Obama.
• It’s the economy, stupid. As a percentage of the overall electorate, there are half as many white working class voters today as there were in 1940. For much of the Bush presidency, this electorate voted for the Republican candidate because of the prevalence of social issues and the war in Iraq. However, this demographic has been shifting Democratic since the election of 2006. If past precedent is any indication, the Democratic candidate should win in a year when voters say the economy is the No. 1 issue on their minds. With the looming financial crisis, only a foreign policy crisis should sway working class voters back to the Republican column. These coveted working class voters are the prize of the 2008 race.
• The evangelical vote is not what it used to be. Evangelicals are still the fastest growing religious group in America, but overall trends show an increasing amount of non-affiliated voters. Those voters claiming no particular denomination now make up 16 percent of the population, in contrast to 8 percent in 1980. The religious versus non-religious divide was a clear contrast between Bush and Gore/Kerry voters in 2000 and 2004, but the election of 2006 revealed fissures in the evangelical vote that may result in gains for Obama among evangelicals and non-affiliated faith voters.
• Newly registered Democratic voters in swing states could determine the election. In the 29 states (plus the District of Columbia) where voter affiliation is kept by party, the Democrats have achieved significant gains since 2004, while the Republicans have suffered significant losses. To be specific, the number of registered Democrats has grown by nearly 800,000 since November of 2004, while the total of registered Republicans has declined by almost one million. These Democratic leaning voters, including college students, are Obama’s secret weapons against the “Palin surge,” because they are voters who are not accounted for in most polls. Will they show up to vote? That is the primary concern for John McCain’s campaign.
Obama’s victory in November is by no means a set deal, but it looks increasingly likely, as the political and demographic winds are blowing in his direction. New generations are redrawing the political map, but only a fool would bet on the outcome. This is unchartered territory where the old rules do not apply.
Submitted 09-25-2008
MALIBU, CA
